Every remaining game is played out possession by possession: who handles the ball, whether he turns it over, draws a foul or shoots, and whether the shot falls against the five defenders on the floor. Rotations and minutes come from models trained on real substitutions.
- The whole season is simulated about a thousand times. Each simulated season is one coherent path, so standings and playoff odds count how often each outcome happens.
- Each player gets one drawn level of ability per simulated season, from how sure we are about his skill entering the year.
- Games already played count as played. Everything else uses what was known before the season.
- Teammates change a shooter's looks, and defenders who get steals force more turnovers.
- For upcoming games, the players who dressed for the team's last game are available, the same list in every simulation; a model of the coach's choices decides who gets in.
- "Playoffs" counts the top 10 in each conference, play-in included. Seeding uses win totals; the real tiebreak rules are not applied.
Teams are assumed to stay healthy. Real seasons have injuries and trades the forecast does not try to predict, so its ranges are narrower than what actually happens.